Volume 73 (2023) Issue: 2023 No#3

Modeling the current and future distribution of brucellosis under climate change scenarios in Qinghai Lake basin, China

Author(s): Temitope Emmanuel Arotolu，HaoNing Wang，JiaNing Lv, Kun Shi，LiYa Huang，XiaoLong Wang

Keywords:Climate change, Brucellosis, Bioclimatic variables, future scenarios, Habitat suitability, Qinghai, China

Brucellosis is a bacterial disease caused by various Brucella species, which infect primarily cattle, swine, goats, sheep, and dogs. The disease is typically transmitted to humans through direct contact with diseased animals, consumption of contaminated animal products, or inhalation of airborne pollutants. The majority of cases are caused by consuming unpasteurized goat or sheep milk or cheese. Based on observed Brucellosis occurrence data and ecogeographic variables, a MaxEnt algorithm was used to model the current and future distribution of Brucellosis in Qinghai Lake basin, P.R. China. Our model showed the Brucellosis current distribution and predicts suitable habitat shifts under future climate scenarios. In the new representatives; SSP 2.6 and SSP 4.5 for the year 2050s and 2070s, our model predicts an expansion in the current suitable areas. This indicates that under the possible climate changes in the future, the living space of Brucellosis in Qinghai Lake basin China will expand significantly. Ecogeographic variables that contributed significantly to the distribution of Brucellosis in Qinghai Lake basin are revealed by our model. The results of our study will promote comparisons with future research and provide a new perspective to inform decision-making in the field of public health in Qinghai province.